Fresh-off my Grammy predictions where, if I’m not mistaken, I believe I correctly predicted exactly one category, I’m back with my official 2019 Academy Award predictions. You may be asking “why do you keep doing this? What makes you qualified in any way?” The answer is I have a Letterboxd account, so trust me, you’re in good hands.
Best Picture
“Black Panther”
“BlacKkKlansman”
“Bohemian Rhapsody”
“The Favourite”
“Green Book”
“A Star is Born”
“Roma”
“Vice”
Unlike last year, there’s no clear frontrunner for the night’s top honor. While a few have a leg ahead of the rest, nothing can be written off. In the battle between old Hollywood (“Green Book,” “A Star is Born”) and new Hollywood (“Black Panther”), there is a good chance that “Roma” could slip in and take it. Of course, there is always the possibility of “Bohemian Rhapsody” winning as the canned, expired cherry on top of a regretful award season.
Will Win: “Roma”
Should Win: “A Star is Born”
Best Actor
Christian Bale, “Vice”
Bradley Cooper, “A Star is Born”
Willem Dafoe, “At Eternity’s Gate”
Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”
Viggo Mortensen, “Green Book”
Rami Malek is winning Best Actor. The sooner we come to terms with that chilling fact, the sooner we may begin the grieving process for literally every other leading male performance in film last year. Malek’s cartoonish portrayal of the legendary Freddie Mercury made it easy for him to standout in a year of low-key performances, but the reality of Rami Malek being an Academy Award-winning actor is still not clicking for me.
Will Win: Rami Malek
Should Win: Bradley Cooper
Best Actress
Yalitza Aparicio, “Roma”
Glenn Close, “The Wife”
Olivia Colman, “The Favourite”
Lady Gaga, “A Star is Born”
Melissa McCarthy, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
I know nobody saw “The Wife,” but I did, twice. So trust me when I say that Glenn Close deserves every award she has won so far, and deserves the Oscar she will be winning next week. Of course, Close doesn’t necessarily have a complete lock on the category—Gaga or Colman could very well sneak in.
Will Win: Glenn Close
Should Win: Glenn Close
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”
Adam Driver, “BlacKkKlansman”
Sam Elliot, “A Star is Born”
Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
Sam Rockwell, “Vice”
Mahershala Ali was by far the best part of “Green Book,” so his second Supporting Actor win wouldn’t be a bad thing. In fact, anyone winning wouldn’t be a bad thing besides Sam Rockwell, who’s performance as George W. Bush in “Vice” could have been done (and probably done better) by any “Saturday Night Live” cast member. With “Can You Ever Forgive Me?” being wildly overlooked, I’m not expecting Richard E. Grant to come out victorious, but his stunning performance makes him more than deserving of such.
Will Win: Mahershala Ali
Should Win: Richard E. Grant
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, “Vice”
Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Emma Stone, “The Favourite”
Marina De Tavira, “Roma”
Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite”
Lack of nominations at the BAFTA and SAG Awards puts a slight damper on Regina King’s chances in Supporting Actress, but wins at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice awards probably even this out. Still, it’s very possible that one of “The Favourite” girls could pull through, or even Amy Adams if Academy voters feel bad enough for her. Personally, I don’t want to see her first win come from such a lackluster role.
Will Win: Regina King
Should Win: Emma Stone
Best Director
Alfonso Cuarón, “Roma”
Yorgos Lanthimos, “The Favourite”
Spike Lee, “BlacKkKlansman”
Adam McKay, “Vice”
Pawel Pawlikowski, “Cold War”
I’m sorry, Bradley Cooper. If it’s any consulation, I thought you did a great job. This is Alfonso Cuarón’s to lose—which he won’t be doing.
Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón
Should Win: Debra Granik for “Leave No Trace,” but female directors scare Academy members, so Cuarón I guess.
Animated Feature
“Incredibles 2”
“Isle of Dogs”
“Mirai”
“Ralph Breaks the Internet”
“Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”
The evil has been defeated, and by the evil I mean “Isle of Dogs” and by defeated I mean the beacon of hope that is “Spider-Verse.” “Isle of Dogs” seems like it was made with the sole intention of winning Animated Feature, so to see it lose to a movie about Spider-Man is going to be a glorious occasion. Sorry, Stop-motion stans. Not your year.
Will Win: “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”
Should Win: “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”
Original Score
“BlacKkKlansman”
“Black Panther”
“If Beale Street Could Talk”
“Isle of Dogs”
“Mary Poppins Returns”
Full disclosure, I have only listened to one of these scores separate from the film itself, but said listening experience was all I needed to know that it needs to win. “If Beale Street Could Talk” would be an empty movie if removed from its score. I went through a week-long period where all I listened to was the “Beale Street” score. It is beautiful. It is soft. It’s a kiss on the forehead, a gentle pat on the back, a flight through pink clouds leading to a world of hope and imagination. If anything is awarded Best Original Score over Nicholas Britell’s masterpiece, I will become a recluse, as I want no part in a society that is capable of such evil!
Will Win: “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Should Win: “If Beale Street Could Talk”
